Though it is still early, it does appear, if the polls are indeed correct, that Senator Obama holds the edge over his rival Senator McCain. However, there is an apprehension in some quarters that this could be reversed by fears of electing an African-American candidate as the next President of the United States; what some commentators have alluded to as the " Bradley effect". So, how crucial do you think would race be in defining the final outcome of this seemingly historic election.
Comments
--PolarisDiB
Edited at 2008-10-18 10:36 am (UTC)
Also -- While I think it is conceivable that the election will be "tipped" by race (either people voting against him, or for him) I think the far more likely group of voters to "tip" it are simply going to be first-time voters.
I'm certain that racism will cause the numbers to shift at least a little, but I'm not convinced it will be at all dramatic. I think that any polls with a margin greater than the margin of error are pretty certain, and those barely within the margin of error are probably safe too.
I've also heard some talk about a reverse-Bradley, and we may more likely see that, especially among evangelicals who may now be more worried about their wallets than anything else.
Those who study political science - more particularly the science of polling and information management - are more likely to argue that what concerns them the most is the dreaded inaccurate exit polling figures. Inaccurate and incomplete exit polling is more likely to drive the way people vote than any other type of polling. Further, accurate exit polling can have the same effect. If, for example, early exit polls on 4 November show that Obama has a strong lead, previous research of the phenomena has proven that Obama voters are less likely to go to the polls (the reasoning is 'Why should I bother, he's already ahead and going to win'). This was a huge issue in 2004 for Kerry and has been an issue in many smaller elections as well. There has even been some debate that the Bush machine planted the misinformation in 2004. It's also been suggested that many Bush supporters lied to exit pollsters in 2004. I'm not entirely convinced that either theory is true; although, I do believe it is likely that many voters did lie about their vote to exit pollsters, democrat and republican alike.
So to answer the question, as an Obama supporter, the Bradley effect doesn't concern me nearly as much as a number of other factors do. The first being exit polling - accurate and inaccurate. Personally, I hate exit polls as they are proven to sway the way voters react on election day. Also, the weather. Yes, the weather. It's also a proven fact in election studies that republicans moreso than democrats are willing to brave nasty weather in order to cast their ballot. Florida is another concern. Obama has pulled into the lead (barely) in Florida recently; however, they are so close that I'm afraid of a repeat of 2000. Add to that the Florida ballot this time around (they showed a picture of it on CNN and I'm just glad I don't have to vote in Florida - take the day off work, Floridians, is all I'm saying) and there is a strong possibility that something similar to the 2000 fiasco may occur. And democrat or republican, Obama supporter or McCain supporter, I think we can all agree that our economy especially cannot afford another Supreme Court challenge and twenty-plus days of uncertainty to find out who the next president is going to be.
In my opinion Society has got it that the colour of ones skin,
is no longer an "issue."
There is a quality that being black seems to sustain, which has become
a positive take on our multi-racial, multi-cultural, multi-just about everything Global society.
Which seems to ring true to all of us.
Racism against white people is still racism.
I've even seen black people, who are voting for McCain, being called horrible things.
If you're not voting for Obama, you're racist; it's extremely annoying. I haven't ever been racist, nor do I ever hope to be. However, I do want McCain to win.
Even if you are not a member of the Klan yourself, you have at least one friend who is a member. The Klan is sneaky enough that they could use you as a scape goat by pinning something on you that you never did.
LOL, the Klan is actually voting for Obama. They endorsed McCain to make people vote for Obama.
You see, they believe in something called 'Rahowa', the Racial Holy War. If Obama wins, they believe the race war will happen. u.u They're idiots, personally. Innocent people will die, merely because some people hate black people. -_-'
So, yeah... McCain/Palin '08!
-Senshi
The plummeting economy may well cost McCain more votes, though.