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Leonard Doyle writes that Virginia has been faithfully in the Republican column in every presidential election for the past 44 years. The state's large military population and a wider community of veterans and family members could always be relied on. However, judging by a series of interviews with serving and former members of the Marines over the weekend, that run could be coming to an end. Read more.

Is McCain being abandoned by even his core voters? Or is McCain's support more solid than the media would have it?


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seldearslj wrote:
Oct. 14th, 2008 11:14 am (UTC)
There's also the argument that while a lot of white voters might say they'll vote Democrat, when it comes to election day, they'll balk at voting for a black president.

I've forgotten the name of this phenomenon, but it was named after a black politician at the local/state level who ran against a white politician who was down in the polls. In spite of being 7 points down in every survey up to the election, the white politician won.

Nobody wants to admit that they're racist, but some folks just can't seem to elucidate on why they're not comfortable with Obama.

eta: okay, so reading the article again, I note that example of The Bradley Effect was some 25 years ago. Hopefully attitudes have changed enough among the general populace, although, for some people, it will boil down to race.

Er. And the point I was making was that it's possible that McCain's chances are better than the media and the pollsters indicate.

Edited at 2008-10-14 11:18 am (UTC)
sophia_sadek wrote:
Oct. 14th, 2008 11:45 pm (UTC)
Funny how that happens.
I concur with your observation. It's a sort of inverse McCarthy effect where people will deny their true feeling in public out of fear that it will backfire on them.
tyskkvinna wrote:
Oct. 15th, 2008 04:10 pm (UTC)
This article over at fivethirtyeight outlines a pretty interesting picture of the Bradley effect today. I think it's worth reading (of course, with your own grains of salt).

I agree with you - I think McCain's chances are better than people are saying. I don't think it is exclusively due to race, but I'm sure it's a factor to at least some.
seldearslj wrote:
Oct. 16th, 2008 12:19 am (UTC)
Thanks for that. Definitely an interesting link.

Isn't there some guy who's predicting an Obama win, but by a narrow margin? And he's called it correctly for the last half-dozen elections.
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