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The presidential campaigns of John McCain and Barack Obama were in perilous waters yesterday as the candidates joined forces with George Bush in an attempt to persuade Congress that the only way to avert a global economic collapse is to adopt a huge and controversial rescue plan before Monday.

The stand-off over tomorrow night's presidential debate remained unresolved, however. Amid rapidly moving political events both candidates were aggressively jockeying to claim a leadership role. Republican and Democratic members of Congress have balked at the sheer scale of the plan fearing a backlash of hostility from distressed voters who are now expected to pick up the tab for Wall Street's excesses.

Both candidates are committed to getting a rescue package agreed, with conditions, and have heeded Mr Bush's prime-time warning on Wednesday night, that failure to adopt the deal could cause panic across America and melt down the already faltering economy. Read more

Question: Is there an electoral bounce to be had from the financial crisis and who is likely to benefit?

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cidercupcakes wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 12:43 pm (UTC)
Is there an electoral bounce to be had from the financial crisis and who is likely to benefit?

Absolutely, but which way it's going to go is still, IMO, up in the air. The press seem to be getting fed up with the McCain campaign's refusal to engage with them, as well, and I think that, combined with his "suspension" of his campaign (I don't think much of it, personally -- he's not on any of the relevant Senate committees, it corresponds to his dropping in the polls, and for heaven's sake, Lincoln found time to campaign during the Civil War), this might well serve as a bounce for Obama. The reactions of both campaigns to the terms of the bailout, and the perceived effect each had, is going to play a huge part, as are the perceived strengths/weaknesses of their respective plans for the future, to prevent this happening again (never mind that it came about because both parties repealed measures set in place to keep it from happening again in the first place, after the 1929 crash).
soleta_nf wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 02:43 pm (UTC)
never mind that it came about because both parties repealed measures set in place to keep it from happening again in the first place, after the 1929 crash

Excellent point.
(no subject) - the_paulr - Sep. 26th, 2008 03:07 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - izuko - Sep. 26th, 2008 07:33 pm (UTC) Expand
Making Palin look bad? - rory_lane - Sep. 26th, 2008 08:36 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: Making Palin look bad? - izuko - Sep. 26th, 2008 10:14 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: Making Palin look bad? - the_paulr - Sep. 26th, 2008 11:00 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: Making Palin look bad? - izuko - Sep. 26th, 2008 11:17 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: Making Palin look bad? - the_paulr - Sep. 26th, 2008 11:32 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - cidercupcakes - Sep. 26th, 2008 09:18 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - izuko - Sep. 26th, 2008 10:15 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - pennyann - Sep. 27th, 2008 05:14 am (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - izuko - Sep. 27th, 2008 02:42 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - pennyann - Sep. 27th, 2008 04:36 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - izuko - Sep. 27th, 2008 05:10 pm (UTC) Expand
robertseymour wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 12:45 pm (UTC)
McCain's move looks too cynical and obvious - what real difference will it make to the crisis if he and Obama nip back and suspend campaigning.
32team wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 12:47 pm (UTC)
you'd better watch US predidents singing Russian Anthem)))
cool video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mURiBSxJrQo
(no subject) - izuko - Sep. 26th, 2008 07:34 pm (UTC) Expand
Shamed? - rory_lane - Sep. 26th, 2008 08:42 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: Shamed? - izuko - Sep. 26th, 2008 10:17 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - lennoxmacbeth - Sep. 26th, 2008 08:45 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - cidercupcakes - Sep. 26th, 2008 09:19 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: Shamed? - izuko - Sep. 26th, 2008 10:18 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: Shamed? - stexgirl2000 - Sep. 26th, 2008 10:38 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: Shamed? - izuko - Sep. 26th, 2008 10:39 pm (UTC) Expand
thies wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 01:33 pm (UTC)
Answer: Maybe! And it would be one of the nominees benefiting.
lurkitty wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 01:34 pm (UTC)
John McCain hasn't suspended his campaign at all. His ads are still running, he made a speech yesterday and held several press conferences and even raised funds! This is pure posturing. Problem is, people aren't buying it.

Astute observers will note that the compromise proposal was almost word for word Obama's proposal. I agree with the prediction that McCain will come in, offer some ghost-written amendment as his own that will "suddenly" bring the Republicans to heel, and ride out on the wave of having saved the day.
newdadin09 wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 01:55 pm (UTC)
There could have been a bounce for Obama, but his reaction to McCain and Bush inviting him up to join the club was to go up and join the club. Bounce, forfeited.
iamhewolf wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 04:38 pm (UTC)
Considering that it was his idea first, bounce reclaimed.
(no subject) - newdadin09 - Sep. 26th, 2008 07:15 pm (UTC) Expand
rocky_oberlin wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 02:43 pm (UTC)
In Defense...
What you are missing is the fact that even though both Senators are trying to get a change in address, they still are supposed to be working as senators. Obama said that a president has to be able to multi-task and then sat in Florida and said "If I can be helpful, if you need me for anything, just call me." McCain at least went to his job. Yes, he was asked to come back to Washington, but at least he did what the Arizona taxpayers are paying him to do. Yes, he was called to bring the Republicans into the fold to vote for the bailout. But any good Republican will work things out so that we as taxpayers don't get stuck with a bill for dirty dealings that certain parties, that are noted to be advising a certain democratic senator in economics, made millions on. So before you say that McCain is posing to try to look good in front of very bias media, may be we should look between the lines on both sides and see who is really doing their job. I would be very upset if my senator left his job to try to make himself look like a presidential candidate when my country could be falling apart at the seams.
venusad wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 03:55 pm (UTC)
Re: In Defense...
I'm not sure what coverage of the discussions you were watching, but Obama was sitting at that table with McCain during the discussions over what to do about the crisis.
Obama did indeed return to Washington DC, just as McCain did, but Obama said there should be no reason to postpone the debate, as being presidential candidates with their own private planes, there is no reason they can't leave for a little bit to face the questions and prove who the better candidate is.
Being in two places at once is something the president will have to manage on a practical daily basis.

Also, let it be noted, that several senators have complained, saying that McCain's presence was not needed in the discussions, and that he was more of a hindrance than a boone.
Re: In Defense... - rocky_oberlin - Sep. 26th, 2008 04:11 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: In Defense... - venusad - Sep. 26th, 2008 05:08 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: In Defense... - the_demon79 - Sep. 26th, 2008 05:40 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: In Defense... - izuko - Sep. 26th, 2008 07:38 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: In Defense... - venusad - Sep. 26th, 2008 07:52 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: In Defense... - rory_lane - Sep. 26th, 2008 08:57 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: In Defense... - izuko - Sep. 26th, 2008 10:20 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: In Defense... - izuko - Sep. 26th, 2008 09:49 pm (UTC) Expand
Re: In Defense... - fauxklore - Sep. 27th, 2008 10:00 am (UTC) Expand
pennyann wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 02:44 pm (UTC)
I think the bounce will only happen if one of the two candidates decides to really explain how this is going to work, how this plan is unavoidable, and that they recognize that their promises of "cutting taxes" is now out the window by adding 700 billion dollars to the tax debt that the American public is now going to get to pay back.

I think that McCain "suspending his campaign" is not only not accurate (as a poster mentioned, he and his surrogates are still running ads and making speeches and appearances on news programs), but I think it is purely done to try and paint himself as something he is not... trying to make himself look more integral to the process than he actually is... and I'm not buying it either.

Further, it is rash and impetuous of him. It seems like a snap decision (and not a very good one) that forewarns of his famous short fuse and makes me wonder just how many bad snap decisions he would make if he were president.

[Edited to correct 7 billion to 700 billion...]

Edited at 2008-09-26 03:04 pm (UTC)
izuko wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 07:41 pm (UTC)
The ads were bought, paid for, and scheduled far in advance.

As for it being a snap decision - I prefer a president who can respond to a crisis, instead of flailing around, rushing to find out what the polls say, saying it's above his pay grade, then voting present.

Had it been Obama who suspended his campaign, y'all would be calling him a decisive leader.
(no subject) - pennyann - Sep. 27th, 2008 04:56 am (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - izuko - Sep. 27th, 2008 02:39 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - pennyann - Sep. 27th, 2008 04:56 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - izuko - Sep. 27th, 2008 05:46 pm (UTC) Expand
kaleandwine wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 03:47 pm (UTC)
A clear bounce for Obama. He was polling ahead on all economic issues, even before this week's shenanigans. There also seems to be very poor response to McCain's decision to "suspend" his nomination.

The race will remain close, but pending a terrorist attack or new issue of international security (gulp), I'll expect Obama to maintain a slight lead through election day.

(edited to correct typo)

Edited at 2008-09-26 03:48 pm (UTC)
venusad wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 04:00 pm (UTC)
My money's on Obama benefiting...like the previous poster said, he's stronger on economics, and this whole McCain avoiding the debate is just going to end up looking bad. Especially if tonight they go live and he's nowhere to be seen whilst Barack is patiently standing there, ready to answer whatever questions they have planned for him.

Especially considering the questions are to be focused on forein policy and national security....which is supposedly McCain's strong point.

All in all, it just looks very bad.
izuko wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 07:42 pm (UTC)
The last thing McCain would have wanted to do is suspend the debate. It was his perfect chance to show off Obama's glass jaw to America. He benefits NOTHING by going off the campaign trail. That's how you know it's not a stunt.
(no subject) - venusad - Sep. 26th, 2008 07:51 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - izuko - Sep. 26th, 2008 09:23 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - cidercupcakes - Sep. 26th, 2008 09:26 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - izuko - Sep. 26th, 2008 10:21 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - cidercupcakes - Sep. 26th, 2008 11:40 pm (UTC) Expand
dakasteve wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 04:17 pm (UTC)
It seems to me that the easiest bounce prediction is this: Whatever comes out of this mess, Americans are going to be upset about it. People don't get upset about a bad plan that doesn't pass, they get upset about the mediocre plan they get stuck with. So whichever candidate can most effectively distance himself from the plan that passes will get the bounce.

It's pretty hideous - as the next president (and as patriotic Americans, which they certainly are as well), they want the best step forward in this crisis. But they can really benefit electorally by critizing the flaws.
wtf wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 04:48 pm (UTC)
I think it'll be a bounce for Obama. McCain has built much of his campaign bragging about how he has crusaded for less and less regulation; now we're seeing the results of that.

If Obama capitalizes on that in tonight's debate, he'll likely come out way ahead.
izuko wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 07:47 pm (UTC)
Considering that the current problems are, largely, the result of Sarbanes-Oxley (a republican fiasco), and Barney Frank's pushing for more affordable housing to those who can't afford it (a democrat fiasco), it's clear that government is the root of the problem, not the solution.

Obama has taken more from Freddie Mac than any other senator, besides Chris Dodd, and has the former book-cooking CEO on his team. The best they can find for McCain is that his campaign manager was once associated with a firm that, subsequent to his disassociating with it, had a business relationship with Freddie Mac. The democrats are tightly bound to the GSEs and blocked McCain's attempt to REGULATE them in 2005.

Seems to me that, in this case, democrats are for self-serving regulation, and blocked McCain on any effective regulation.

The problem is, it takes more than a sound byte to show it. Obama will get the bounce becase the superficials are easier to sell than the truth.
(no subject) - wtf - Sep. 27th, 2008 12:43 am (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - izuko - Sep. 27th, 2008 01:32 am (UTC) Expand
the_demon79 wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 05:26 pm (UTC)
Question: Is there an electoral bounce to be had from the financial crisis and who is likely to benefit?

Answer: Yes... To Be Determined.

McCain is perceived as weaker on the economy, so he has more to gain/lose. I doubt he will be able to shake his weak image, though. When a candidate is tagged as the lesser on an issue, it's hard to recover from it.

McCain's initial decision to skip the first debate will have a far greater effect on poll numbers. If he doesn't show up, he's going to be ceding spotlight time to Obama. Even if Obama seems like he's not taking the problem seriously because of not "setting aside politics", reaching an audience of 40 million viewers will give him a net gain in the polls.
tabaqui wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 05:51 pm (UTC)
Perhaps I'm confused about what's going on, but it seems like every news cast I saw talked about 'Congressional Republicans' and 'Congressional Democrats'.... Is the Senate actually involved in this? If it *is* just Congress, exactly how much say would any Senator, Obama and McCain included, have in this?

Or perhaps I'm just confused and the Senate is also in there, but I seem to be hearing only about 'Congress' on the news....

Personally, I do believe they should both weigh in with opinions and suggestions, but neither of them need to be physically present for them to be involved.

To me, McCain wanting to postpone the debate - and then offering to cancel the *VP* debate, is just one more lame tactic and a sign that he's feeling very unsure.
the_demon79 wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 05:55 pm (UTC)
Congress is composed of two entities: the Senate and the House of Representatives. "Congress" means both together.
(no subject) - tabaqui - Sep. 26th, 2008 05:59 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - the_demon79 - Sep. 26th, 2008 07:06 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - tabaqui - Sep. 26th, 2008 07:35 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - the_demon79 - Sep. 26th, 2008 07:45 pm (UTC) Expand
(no subject) - tabaqui - Sep. 26th, 2008 08:09 pm (UTC) Expand
newdadin09 wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 07:22 pm (UTC)
Biden continues his tenure as VP candidate to throw banana peels in Obama's path.

Not to be outdone, Bush comes up with a 700 billion dollar plan to weld McCain's showlaces together.

This would make a fine silent comedy, but as getting us a lord & master for the next for years, ugh.
izuko wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 07:49 pm (UTC)
Indeed. I kind of wish we could just hit reset on this whole political season. Whoever wins, America loses. It's just that we lose less with one side than the other.
(no subject) - newdadin09 - Sep. 26th, 2008 08:46 pm (UTC) Expand
myranda_e wrote:
Sep. 26th, 2008 11:09 pm (UTC)
but of course they are using it to their advantage! and the people sitting on their couches, on the stools in bars eat it up! "well i propose this bailout will help us", bullCRAP. how can you believe this load of bologna?
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