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Leonard Doyle writes that Virginia has been faithfully in the Republican column in every presidential election for the past 44 years. The state's large military population and a wider community of veterans and family members could always be relied on. However, judging by a series of interviews with serving and former members of the Marines over the weekend, that run could be coming to an end. Read more.

Is McCain being abandoned by even his core voters? Or is McCain's support more solid than the media would have it?

Comments

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(no subject) - erynn999 - Oct. 14th, 2008 10:44 am (UTC)
brennakimi wrote:
Oct. 14th, 2008 02:28 pm (UTC)
thank you.

as the daughter of a peacetime casualty, and a grateful recipient of chapter 35, i've been very watchful of veterans issues, but not only because it's important to me and mine. i can't believe how he daily claims to care so much for veterans and again and again votes against caring for them. if john mccain, as truly competent and good at negotiating as he can be really cared about veterans, after 26 years in congress, we'd have a much better support system for them.

he's sought time and again to strip away benefits and not bothered to support pay increases for these people to whom we owe everything. last year he even went so far as to impign them wholesale for 'just joining the military to abuse the benefits.' it's just unfathomable that he can get away with claiming them as his pet project.
(no subject) - erynn999 - Oct. 15th, 2008 12:45 am (UTC)
brennakimi wrote:
Oct. 15th, 2008 01:17 am (UTC)
seriously.
seldearslj wrote:
Oct. 14th, 2008 11:14 am (UTC)
There's also the argument that while a lot of white voters might say they'll vote Democrat, when it comes to election day, they'll balk at voting for a black president.

I've forgotten the name of this phenomenon, but it was named after a black politician at the local/state level who ran against a white politician who was down in the polls. In spite of being 7 points down in every survey up to the election, the white politician won.

Nobody wants to admit that they're racist, but some folks just can't seem to elucidate on why they're not comfortable with Obama.

eta: okay, so reading the article again, I note that example of The Bradley Effect was some 25 years ago. Hopefully attitudes have changed enough among the general populace, although, for some people, it will boil down to race.

Er. And the point I was making was that it's possible that McCain's chances are better than the media and the pollsters indicate.

Edited at 2008-10-14 11:18 am (UTC)
sophia_sadek wrote:
Oct. 14th, 2008 11:45 pm (UTC)
Funny how that happens.
I concur with your observation. It's a sort of inverse McCarthy effect where people will deny their true feeling in public out of fear that it will backfire on them.
tyskkvinna wrote:
Oct. 15th, 2008 04:10 pm (UTC)
This article over at fivethirtyeight outlines a pretty interesting picture of the Bradley effect today. I think it's worth reading (of course, with your own grains of salt).

I agree with you - I think McCain's chances are better than people are saying. I don't think it is exclusively due to race, but I'm sure it's a factor to at least some.
seldearslj wrote:
Oct. 16th, 2008 12:19 am (UTC)
Thanks for that. Definitely an interesting link.

Isn't there some guy who's predicting an Obama win, but by a narrow margin? And he's called it correctly for the last half-dozen elections.
chinchiller wrote:
Oct. 14th, 2008 12:46 pm (UTC)
My father comes from a very pro-war background (his dad served in WWII and several of his brothers have fought since then (he would have as well had his vision been better)). My dad doesn't like him. He's still going to vote for him because he's got some weird paranoia about Democrats, but he doesn't like him.
hilelorangutan wrote:
Oct. 14th, 2008 02:28 pm (UTC)
Have you changed your mind yet?
As shannondela said, it insults the intelligence of the American people by constantly throwing polls and leading headlines at them. Every new statement that comes out or twist that journalists and pollsters can throw on something, immediately they ask the American people again,

"What do you think of him now? What do you think of him now? How about now?"

I'd like to give people more credit and say that there are certain core issues that haven't changed on either side, and no matter how much the image gets distorted by the media, those issues remain the relevant ones. General conservative decisions for McCain. He's not a radical right-wing, but Obama is pretty far on the left. So as the majority of people in the US seem to think that somewhere near the middle is good, McCain can be more appealing.

Also gun control, as always, is a bigger issue than it is made out to be.
princekermit wrote:
Oct. 14th, 2008 03:46 pm (UTC)
McCain is starting to suffer from an affliction that normally Democrats have to deal with: trying to keep all the demographics happy. In previous elections, it was the Democrats busy trying to juggle union and pro-choice and gay-marriage folks. This time, some of McCain's supporters can't stand the negative ads he's been running, others are hungry for the Bush/Rove Red Meat school of campaigning.
calchandler wrote:
Oct. 14th, 2008 04:52 pm (UTC)
Many of these voters in the Tidewater area of Virginia have families. Many see McCain's policies as damaging to their futures even if they appear beneficial in the short term.

Others know that his track record for helping veterans is abysmal. And some just feel that he's relying to heavily on their vote because he is one himself.

There's also the high concentration of college/univeristy students, along with the children of these veterans who are old enough to vote that will be enough to throw the Virgnia vote in a direction it hasn't gone in awhile. At least that's what they say about the Hampton Roads area nowadays.
polarisdib wrote:
Oct. 14th, 2008 05:50 pm (UTC)
Best I can tell, McCain never had "core followers" in the Republican sense of the word, being that he pissed off too many Republicans by actually showing that he can think beyond his party from time to time. I remember when he first started running and there was an article in Newsweek about how such conservative media gurus such as O'Reilly and Couture were saying that they'd rather Clinton win than McCain because, and I quote, "Hillary's the devil and I'd rather the devil win than McCain". That amount of melodrama is partially due to the fact that the Republican party has become severely damaged by Bush's administration and now acts just like a high school drama class. Now McCain is alienating others with his negativity and some bad moves from his campaign, so I honestly do not believe he has very solid support at this time. However, what I believe or not hardly ever matches what people think, particularly because I rarely understand them.

--PolarisDiB
ysabetwordsmith wrote:
Oct. 14th, 2008 11:21 pm (UTC)
Thoughts
It sounds to me like McCain is losing support in places he thought secure. However, since the media benefit from sensationalism, I wouldn't be surprised if they're exaggerating the amount of the shift.
tyskkvinna wrote:
Oct. 15th, 2008 04:35 pm (UTC)
Re: Thoughts
That way when McCain wins, they can exaggerate the amount of his "come-back".
ysabetwordsmith wrote:
Oct. 15th, 2008 05:00 pm (UTC)
Re: Thoughts
Good point.

By the way, I got a piece of snide and gruesome political humor out of the Poetry Fishbowl that I ran yesterday. You might enjoy reading "The Repair Job" here:
http://ysabetwordsmith.livejournal.com/365058.html
tyskkvinna wrote:
Oct. 15th, 2008 05:58 pm (UTC)
Re: Thoughts
That was great! Thank you for sharing. :) (as a side note, I found your journal rather intriguing)
ysabetwordsmith wrote:
Oct. 15th, 2008 06:28 pm (UTC)
Re: Thoughts
You're welcome. I'm glad you enjoyed the poem.

Feel free to browse my blog anytime. We've got some interests in common, including linguistics and science fiction. I also admire what I've seen of your photography on your blog. So I added you to my Friends list.
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